Kursk could hasten Russia’s post-Putin political succession

The Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk region began in late July with several days of airstrikes before Kiev’s ground forces quickly advanced several miles deep into Russian territory on August 6, 2024.

Since then, according to various reports, they have established an expanded foothold of as much as 1,000 square kilometers. They have destroyed a lot of Russian equipment and inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces.

The Kremlin has rushed forces to the region but has so far failed to halt the Ukrainian advance, let alone drive Ukrainian forces from Russian soil. Now, according to as yet unconfirmed but credible reports, Putin has appointed Alexei Dyumin to head up what it calls its “counter-terrorist” response to the Ukrainian incursion. This is significant in several ways.

First, there is the personnel dimension. Dyumin is Putin’s former bodyguard, but also served as deputy head of the GRU military intelligence service, deputy defense minister and, until the end of May 2024, as governor of the Tula region, south of Moscow.

He was then appointed as secretary to the State Council. This is a body that brings together all the governors of Russia’s regions and is chaired by the Russian president. The choice of Dyumin – someone clearly outside the traditional military hierarchy – is indicative of Putin’s lack of trust in his military leaders to get the job done.

Dyumin’s handling of this crisis could therefore either accelerate or end his rise among the Russian political elite. If he is successful, it would potentially cement his status as a prime candidate to succeed Putin.

Putin’s phraseology, referring to Ukraine’s operation as a provocation requiring a “counter-terrorist” response, is also significant. It implies