Kursk has put Putin on the back foot – for now

The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk oblast took almost everyone by surprise.

Perhaps not the Russians stationed on the border, who reportedly tried to warn of a Ukrainian troop buildup, but the rest of us who watch the conflict closely did not think the Ukrainian army – under increasingly severe pressure in Donetsk oblast further south – had the spare manpower and kit to launch this operation.

So far it has been successful, advancing up to 30 kilometers in some directions and creating a salient inside Russia some 40 kilometers wide. An area of about 800 square kilometers has been seized so far, according to the Institute for the Study of War, in the greatest loss of western Russian territory since April 1944.

How have the Ukrainians done it and what might happen next?

First, they have had good operational security (opsec). Remember the US Discord leaks last year that gave away the battle order of Ukraine’s summer 2023 offensive forces? Well, this time that hasn’t happened. Even America initially seemed surprised that the Ukrainians had attacked into Russia, before the US ended up endorsing the move.

Better opsec means a less prepared enemy, as was the case when Ukraine’s lead brigades rolled over the border early on August 6.

Second, and perhaps most importantly, they picked a weakly defended stretch of the border to attack, near the Russian town of Sudzha, nearly 200km northwest of the closest frontline in Kharkiv, and 350km from the main frontline.

On the main frontline, Russia has managed to generate a persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capability, using drones and pairing them with guided missiles and bombs to make it very hard for the Ukrainians to move without being targeted. This