Kursk incursion wrecks Moscow’s war narrative

On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian soldiers crossed the border into Kursk province, marking the first invasion of foreign troops into Russian territory since World War II. In the days since, Russian television viewers and social media users have been confronted with images of burned-out houses and captured Russian soldiers.

The attack caught the Russian armed forces by surprise, and they have struggled to eject the Ukrainians from Russian territory. Meanwhile, over 120,000 Russian civilians fled the conflict zone.

The development not only challenges Russia’s military, but it also challenges the Kremlin’s narrative that everything is going according to plan, that victory is within Russia’s grasp and that President Vladimir Putin is able to protect the Russian people from foreign threats.

The Russia-Ukraine war has devolved into a brutal and dispiriting war of attrition. Each side is struggling to come up with the money, arms and men needed to maintain operations along a 600-mile front.

With fighting seemingly at a stalemate, the outcome of the war may well depend on the willingness of the public in Russia and Ukraine to bear the economic costs and human sacrifices needed to keep the war going. Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk may shock the Russian leaders – and public – out of their complacency and disrupt the status quo.

An overconfident Kremlin

Russian government propaganda throughout the war has been strangely ambivalent. On the one hand, state propagandists claim that Russia is engaged in an existential struggle with the West. In this heightened state of war-footing, military spending has more than doubled to over 8% of gross domestic product, and military training has been introduced in all schools.

At the same time, most