What’s Ukraine’s endgame in Kursk?

Ukrainians have long become used to grim news reports from their besieged lands. But that’s suddenly changed. Following its remarkably successful incursion of Russia’s Kursk region, cheerful Ukrainian journalists are now covering the war from captured Russian territory.

Ukraine’s surprise counterpunch, taking the fight into Russia for the first time, shows no signs yet of having reached a high-water mark. Unlike previous pinprick raids by the anti-Putin Freedom of Russia Legion militia group, Ukraine’s armed forces are using some of their most seasoned units.

Having punched through a thinly defended portion of its border near the Russian city of Kursk – itself famous as a scene of one of the Soviet Union’s greatest victories against Germany in the Second World War – Ukraine’s forces reportedly have captured up to 70 settlements.

In the process, they’ve taken control of a piece of land encompassing some 1,000 square kilometers, up to 30 kilometers deep inside Russia.

There are numerous theories about what Ukraine wants to achieve. One is that it seeks a sizeable foothold in Russia as currency to trade for captured Ukrainian territory in future peace talks. Recent signs that its forces are digging in might support that claim.

Another is that Kiev’s goals are more modest, including holding onto key towns and road/rail hubs. That complicates Moscow’s logistics efforts and would still give Ukraine territorial chips for the negotiating table.

A third is that its forces will withdraw, having forced Moscow to secure its border by diverting significant military resources away from Ukraine.

On balance, the second two explanations are probably closer to the mark. Holding large swathes of Russian territory will be difficult for