China-Philippines near full diplomatic collapse at sea

MANILA – Escalating disputes in the South China Sea are entering a perilous new phase with the virtual breakdown in Philippine-China communication channels amid contradictory accounts of diplomatic negotiations aimed at preventing an armed conflict.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s administration has categorically rejected multiple claims by China that the two sides had allegedly agreed to certain de-escalation measures over disputed sea territories.

Earlier, China’s embassy in Manila had claimed that the two sides had a “gentleman’s agreement” with the former Rodrigo Duterte administration over the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines has a de facto marine detachment atop the grounded BRP Sierra Madre vessel.

More recently, Beijing has claimed that it had negotiated a “new model” with Philippine counterparts to manage disputes over the Scarborough Shoal, which has been under China’s administration control since 2012 after a monthslong naval standoff.

The contested Scarborough Shoal, which lies well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), is situated just over 100 nautical miles from vital Philippine bases at Subic and Clark, which have served as a site for major drills with America and other Western allies in recent years.

In response, Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano, arguably the most influential security official in Marcos Jr’s cabinet, has accused China of spreading “fake news” and “disinformation.” He has referred to China’s claims as “pathetic desperation.”

The situation has become so dire that China has threatened to release audio recordings of supposed confidential negotiations – a controversial move that could lead to the total collapse of