South China Sea: new Philippine claims on alleged Duterte-Xi deal could play into Beijing’s hands, analysts say

The comments by Salvador Medialdea, Duterte’s former executive secretary, were meant to shift the blame to late leader Benigno Aquino III who could “no longer defend himself”, observers told This Week in Asia, adding that this would allow Beijing to strengthen its claims of a deal being in place.

The alleged agreement would restrict the Philippines’ ability to send repair and construction materials to the BRP Sierra Madre – a World War II era navy vessel grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea to serve as an outpost to strengthen Manila’s presence in the disputed waters.

Testifying during a hearing of the House Committee on National Defence and Security on Tuesday, Medialdea said he understood “there was a previous commitment that food and water will be allowed to be shipped to the debilitated vessel from 2013”.

He claimed the deal had been agreed to by former defence secretary Voltaire Gazmin and then-Chinese ambassador to the Philippines Ma Keqing. Medialdea suggested this agreement continued during Duterte’s administration out of respect for the previous commitment.

This revelation contradicts statements from former Duterte spokesman Harry Roque, who previously claimed that Manila entered into the “gentleman’s agreement” with China during Duterte’s term.

Ramon Beleno III, head of the political science and history department at Ateneo De Davao University, said Medialdea’s claim could only benefit Beijing.

“My prediction is China will say, ‘You see, there’s really a gentleman agreement. Regardless of who they are talking to, it’s clear there’s an agreement and the Philippines violated it’,” Beleno said.

“They could justify now that’s the reason why the Chinese coastguard was doing the water cannoning. That