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Even before the end of a dry season that has dramatically upended the military balance in Myanmar, the broad and profoundly sobering contours of conflict over the remainder of 2024 and into 2025 are already taking shape.
After a string of humiliating defeats at the hands of various ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), the collapse of Myanmar’s junta—the State Administrative Council (SAC)—is an increasingly plausible scenario.
The battle for the border town of Maungdaw in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine state between the insurgent Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) is nearing a bloody dénouement.
In the closing weeks of 2023, the sweeping advances of an alliance of ethnic forces across Myanmar’s northeastern Shan state were often described as a watershed in a slow-grinding war, a telling sign that a military regime long held to be too big to fail could after all be defeated and ultimately overwhelmed.
Operation 1027 has resumed in northern Myanmar, eight months after the rebel offensive dealt a surprise hammer blow to the coup-installed State Administration Council (SAC) military regime.
Myanmar’s dictator Senior General Min Aung Hlaing showcased a major infrastructure project on June 8, opening the Thanlyin Bridge 3 across the Bago River, linking the commercial capital Yangon with the Thilawa Special Economic Zone.
Myanmar’s freefall into failed state status is starkly evident across the multiple battle zones of the countryside but arguably the most alarming decline is being felt in the fast-collapsing economy.
By any measure, it would be a stretch to say that the United States is currently engaged in a New Cold War proxy war with China and Russia in Myanmar.