Surging rebel advances press for Myanmar regime collapse

In the closing weeks of 2023, the sweeping advances of an alliance of ethnic forces across Myanmar’s northeastern Shan state were often described as a watershed in a slow-grinding war, a telling sign that a military regime long held to be too big to fail could after all be defeated and ultimately overwhelmed.

Eight months on, following the late June collapse of a shaky Chinese-brokered ceasefire, a return to full-scale war and the military’s signal loss of the north Shan city of Lashio mean the issue looming over Myanmar is now of an entirely different order.

It turns simply on whether, beyond the watershed, the second phase of the 1027 campaign initiated by the Brotherhood alliance on October 27 last year has triggered a landslide of accelerating and potentially terminal reverses for the State Administration Council (SAC) coup regime; or whether, propped up by another Chinese-sponsored ceasefire, the military, or Tatmadaw, can stabilize an increasingly desperate situation.

In three fundamental respects, the latest hostilities in northern Myanmar have wrought a sea change in the conflict. Importantly, all three underscore the rapidity with which events are assuming a momentum of their own beyond the control of any of the main actors, domestic or external, but with striking geopolitical implications that will impact them all.

The decisive shift of hostilities into the national heartland spearheaded by ethnic Bamar People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), militarily capable and largely loyal to the opposition’s National Unity Government (NUG), has been the first and perhaps biggest game-changer.

Launched on June 25, 1027 Phase Two was planned and executed across three organizationally and logistically distinct fronts.

One, best