Putting Myanmar’s 1027 in realist perspective

Operation 1027 has resumed in northern Myanmar, eight months after the rebel offensive dealt a surprise hammer blow to the coup-installed State Administration Council (SAC) military regime.

On October 27, 2023, multiple targets in Shan state were hit hard by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BA), a rebel coalition comprised of the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army (AA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

They were joined by insurgent allies from the Mandalay People’s Defense Force (PDF), the Bama People’s Liberation Army (BPLA) and factions of the communist People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

In over four months of intense fighting, the 3BA captured 18 towns and 36 military bases, including battalion-sized bases and Military Operations Command 16. The rebel operation killed several hundred Myanmar Army soldiers and compelled over 4,000 troops, including several brigadier generals, to surrender.

Key Shan state border towns were also captured, as well as most of the territory north of the city of Lashio to the Chinese border. Most dramatically, the MNDAA recaptured Laukkai city on the China border, which the insurgents had lost to the Myanmar Army in 2009.

By all accounts, Operation 1027 has reinvigorated and emboldened the anti-SAC resistance. In the weeks after the surprise offensive, similar escalations were mounted across the country.

Those were most prominently seen in Operation 1111 in Kayah state by combined Karenni and anti-coup PDF forces. Later in November, the AA announced that 1027 was being extended to Rakhine State. AA’s subsequent military gains in Rakhine have been equal, if not more dramatic, than the initial phase of the operation in the north.

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