‘Rashomon effect’ obscures Rakhine war atrocities in Myanmar

The battle for the border town of Maungdaw in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine state between the insurgent Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) is nearing a bloody dénouement.

State Administration Council (SAC) regime forces have doggedly defended the town for several weeks of heavy fighting, but they are in almost terminal collapse almost everywhere across Rakhine. But the insurgent AA’s almost certain victory has come at a high cost for the state’s civilian population.

A deadly incident on the border with Bangladesh reportedly occurred on August 5, as hundreds of Rohingya fleeing Maungdaw by boat were targeted by drones dropping bombs.

Graphic film footage of the incident’s aftermath quickly surfaced on social media, showing scores of dead civilians who had been struck by explosions, whether on land waiting to cross into Teknaf, or who may have floated back after the boats had been targeted. Several survivors claimed the AA was to blame for the attack.

Reuters and other international media reported the incident several days after it occurred, but none could independently verify the perpetrator, the possibility of multiple perpetrators, or the number of civilian casualties, with estimates ranging widely between 70 to 200. A British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) investigation in recent days contains harrowing survivor testimony but no conclusive evidence of the perpetrator of the attacks.

Both the MAF and AA widely used weaponized unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), increasingly so in the previous several months of fighting across Rakhine state. It is thus difficult to distinguish which drones are operated by which armed group, especially from civilians unversed in military tactics and weapons systems.

The AA may