US ill-prepared for a nuclear showdown with China

China’s nuclear expansion has put a spotlight on the US nuclear arsenal’s outdated state, forcing a critical rethink of US nuclear strategy amid a possible lowered threshold of nuclear weapons use over Taiwan.

This month, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a report saying that the evolving nuclear dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region, driven by China’s rapid nuclear modernization, increase the likelihood of nonstrategic nuclear weapons use in such a conflict.

The report highlights that once nuclear escalation begins, reciprocal tactical nuclear exchanges may occur without necessarily leading to general nuclear war, a significant departure from Cold War-era deterrence models.

The report’s findings indicate that the US is ill-equipped to manage this new nuclear reality, including regarding doctrine, capabilities and concepts. The study also emphasizes the strategic importance and vulnerability of US allies in the region, such as Japan and Australia, suggesting that China could target these alliances to undermine US extended deterrence.

The CNAS report recommends that the US improve its nuclear fluency among senior leaders, enhance dialogue with China and develop new operational concepts and capabilities to better integrate conventional and nuclear strategies. It also calls for detailed planning with regional allies to bolster resilience against potential Chinese nuclear coercion.

The report also underscores the need for the US to adapt its strategic thinking and capabilities to address the challenges posed by China’s nuclear expansion in the Indo-Pacific theater.

The US maintains the world’s second-largest nuclear arsenal with 5,044 warheads and is undergoing a comprehensive modernization program despite