Second Thomas Shoal isn’t worth war with China

Tensions have eased slightly in the South China Sea as Manila and Beijing appear to have come to an agreement on the humanitarian delivery of supplies to the Philippines’ beleaguered outpost, the rusting and rapidly deteriorating remains of a WWII-era warship that was intentionally grounded on Second Thomas Shoal.

To be sure, this new development in the long-running maritime dispute is encouraging. But another crisis could unfortunately be just around the corner as both parties are already arguing about what exactly has been agreed.

In June, Chinese Coast Guard personnel assaulted and took control of a small Philippine vessel that was approaching Second Thomas Shoal. Some commentators even called for the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty to be invoked.

With the tenuous situation in Ukraine, ominous signs in the Taiwan Strait, and a tumultuous US election season in full swing, Washington is no doubt loathe to exhibit any hint of weakness.

The US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense made simultaneous visits to Manila recently, bringing with them a US$500 million aid package and a proposal for enhanced intelligence sharing.

There certainly has been no shortage of US military activity in and around the Philippines in 2024. For example, the US Marine Corps recently flew missions from Luzon with its new F-35B, and the US Army first deployed (albeit temporarily) its first Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile to the Philippines as well just a couple of months earlier.

Observing such tendencies, it’s worth asking whether or not risking an armed clash with China in the South China Sea genuinely serves US national interests. Many in Washington evince grave concern over “Chinese expansion” and “Beijing’s aggression,” yet