China trails in millionaire growth forecast as Russia keeps steady pace

HONG KONG -- Growth in the ranks of China's millionaires is projected to lag behind regional peers between 2023 and 2028, and sharply slow from past forecasts for the mainland, according to a UBS report.

Mainland China is expected to have about 6.5 million people with assets worth over $1 million by 2028, up roughly 8% from 6 million at the end of 2023. That would trail only the U.S., which is expected to count 25.4 million millionaires by 2028, according to the report released this past Wednesday.

However, the pace of growth among the Chinese wealthy set pales in comparison to expectations for previous five-year periods and the much higher forecasts for neighbors such as Taiwan and Indonesia.

Those two markets lead the way in Asia, according to the latest projections, as growth rates sink across the region. Taiwan is forecast to see 47% growth in millionaires to 1.16 million by 2028, while Indonesia is on course for 32% growth to over 235,000.

With a falling population and high wealth migration, China's 8% growth rate is the second-lowest across 56 markets covered by UBS, outpacing only Greece. Netherlands and the U.K. are projected to lose millionaires over the coming four years.

Credit Suisse, which published the annual report for over a decade until its merger with UBS, gave far higher projected growth rates to China for preceding five-year periods: 92.7% for 2020 to 2025; 97% for 2021 to 2026; and 112% for 2022 to 2027.

China's millionaires are also forecast to grow at a slower clip than Russia's, despite ongoing Western sanctions due to the Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Russia is projected see a 21% increase in millionaires by 2028, to over 461,000.

Commodity prices have helped support Russian wealth, said Paul Donovan,