South China Sea: Philippines’ hitch-free mission a sign of better days in disputed waters?

While analysts call it a positive development, they warn Manila to “stay vigilant” against attempts by Beijing to manipulate the narrative for its own gain, potentially undermining the fragile peace.

Don McLain Gill, a geopolitical analyst and lecturer at De La Salle University’s Department of International Studies, told This Week in Asia that Manila “should not rule out active escalation, which is still very much within the utility belt of China”.

Gill said Saturday’s RORE (rotation and resupply mission) mission was a “positive sign”, but cautioned that the Chinese would “try to misconstrue this success” to “illustrate itself in a dominant position”.

Previously, Chinese coastguard vessels had attempted to disrupt numerous RORE missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, which Beijing also claims, based on accusations the Philippines was bringing building materials to reinforce the BRP Sierra Madre, violating an agreement that no new infrastructure be built on the contested territory.

After Manila’s statement regarding Saturday’s mission, Beijing’s foreign affairs ministry said that the “China Coast Guard let the [Philippine] vessel through” based on the provisional arrangement both countries had agreed on the week prior, “after being informed by the Philippines before its resupply for the warship grounded at China’s Ren’ai Jiao [Beijing’s term for the Second Thomas Shoal] and confirming on-the-scene that the vessel carried living supplies only”.

However, Philippine officials refuted Beijing’s version of events, saying that no such inspection took place.

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China, Philippines differ over deal to stop clashes at fiercely disputed shoal

“Instead of acknowledging how two countries were able to manage differences in order to avoid