South China Sea: scepticism over expanding Manila-Beijing resupply deal

Manila should not place hopes on expanding a provisional arrangement with Beijing over its resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal to cover the entire West Philippine Sea, observers warn, as such a move could lead to China imposing its dominance in the disputed waters and ambiguous territorial boundaries.

The scepticism comes after the Philippines’ foreign affairs department floated the idea following an August 8 incident where a Chinese aircraft allegedly dropped flares in the path of a Philippine jet over Scarborough Shoal.

Beijing and Manila have tentatively agreed on guidelines for the Philippines to conduct resupply missions to a military outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal, a flashpoint in the South China Sea.

An expansion of the agreement was “certainly an interesting idea” if Beijing and other claimants to the disputed areas of the South China Sea were willing to cooperate, Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said.

At a budget hearing in Congress on Tuesday, Manalo referred to the aerial incident in the West Philippine Sea, Manila’s name for the disputed maritime region that lies within its exclusive economic zone.

Manalo accused China of having “overtaken our airspace”, adding that the Philippines was “open to any discussion” with Beijing. The Philippines has launched a diplomatic protest over the matter.

Don McLain Gill, a geopolitical analyst and lecturer at the Department of International Studies at De La Salle University, warned against the Philippines pursuing an expanded agreement beyond the Second Thomas Shoal with China. Gill said Beijing had shown its goal was to maintain dominance when it escalated tensions into Manila’s airspace.

“Based on China’s foreign policy, they will ask for a trade-off because