South China Sea: how will Manila answer as Beijing shifts tactics from water to sky?

Analysts said Manila must urgently establish clear rules of engagement and bolster its air force capabilities to manage potential future conflicts. However, they did not believe it would lead to the country invoking its Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) with the United States, as that might escalate the situation into a direct military conflict, which the treaty is meant to deter.

China justified its action on Saturday by saying the PAF aircraft had “illegally” entered the airspace of Huangyan Dao, the Chinese name for the Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea, Manila’s term for the waters of the South China Sea that lie within its exclusive economic zone.

In a statement on Sunday, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr denounced China’s action describing it as “unjustified, illegal and reckless”.

It was the first reported incident involving the PLA Air Force disrupting a PAF operation since Marcos assumed office in June 2022.

Marcos’s military chief, General Romeo Brawner Jnr, also condemned the incident, saying it had endangered the lives of PAF personnel.

Filipino defence analyst Vincent Kyle Parada, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told This Week in Asia that the PLA Air Force’s deployment of flares was a deliberate, wilful, and provocative action but not one meant to produce lethal results.

“If the incident did result in loss of life on the part of Filipino personnel, it’s certain that the US would mount some type of military response or show of strength in the South China Sea in accordance with MDT,” Parada said.

“But whether it leads to active warfare is entirely dependent on Manila. Obviously, China and the Philippines are rational actors – they want to avoid a war. The MDT serves