Middle East war could swing US election for Trump

As we near the first anniversary of the October 7 attack on Israel, the conflict in the Middle East has escalated significantly. Iran just launched nearly 200 missiles on Israel, and Israel has continued its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza.

In addition to the assassination of top Hezbollah commanders, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel has struck hundreds of targets in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa and the suburbs of Beirut in the past few days. It has also expanded the conflict to include a limited ground invasion into Lebanon.

Meanwhile, despite ongoing efforts by the US, the possibility of some kind of ceasefire in Gaza and the wider region seems ever more remote.

After the Iranian missile strikes, a US State Department spokesman said: “We are not going to give up on reaching a ceasefire in Gaza because we believe it is the best way to free the hostages.” But he later added, referring to Hamas, “You need both parties to engage, and right now, we have a refusal to engage by one of those parties.”

It looks more and more likely that there will be no political win for President Joe Biden in the Middle East before the November 5 election, as his team had clearly been hoping.

Some argue that this is partly because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping that Donald Trump wins in November and that he could then draw the US into a confrontation with Iran.

Ceasefire blocked

The US seemed to be making some headway on a ceasefire in July. But then came the assassination of Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran (which Israel has not admitted to).

Some have argued that this was not only an attempt to draw Iran into the conflict, but a clear blow to the chances of a ceasefire.