Taking domestic politics into account in Middle East conflict

October 3, 2024

SEOUL – As Israel proceeds with a ground offensive against Hezbollah, the situation in the Middle East is deteriorating day by day. The prospects for ending the war are dim, while the loss of lives, including innocent civilians, and property damage continues to mount. In the past, during such crises, the United States would intervene to manage the situation. However, such interventions seem absent this time. The elements that guaranteed global peace and stability have suddenly vanished. Has the international order led by the US since the end of the Cold War collapsed?

On this matter, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman explained a grand struggle between the “coalition of inclusion” and the “coalition of resistance” while expressing hopes for prospective action from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The column has offered a broad view that pierces the essence of the current Middle Eastern conflict, showcasing yet another moment of insight. However, his analysis needs one crucial element: the variable of domestic politics. While domestic politics plays a decisive role in every country’s foreign policy, it is often excluded from analyses even by top-level scholars. This is because nations, when deciding foreign policy, rarely admit the importance of domestic politics as reasons and instead usually invoke action-reaction logic between states based on national interests. Therefore, Friedman’s grand picture needs to be reconstructed considering the domestic political factors in major related countries like Israel, Iran and the United States.

In Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s personal calculations stand out. The prime minister faces responsibility for the failure to prevent last year’s