The long-feared Middle East war is here

When Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel this week in retaliation for the Israeli assassinations of the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, some were surprised by Tehran’s forceful response.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately announced his country would harshly retaliate at a time of its own choosing. He said as his security cabinet gathered for a late-night meeting, “whoever attacks us, we attack them.”

The Biden administration strongly condemned Iran’s aggression and reiterated its commitment to defending Israel. The White House said Iran would suffer “severe consequences”, though President Joe Biden urged against attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

So, what could Israel’s retaliation look like, and is a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, and perhaps even the United States, now likely?

Regional war is already here

A regional war is no longer imminent – it is here. The conflict that began in Gaza nearly a year ago has expanded across the Middle East, with Israel fighting countries and groups far from its borders. It also has global implications.

As this week’s Iranian strike demonstrates, the conflict has become a direct confrontation between Israel and its Western allies on one side, and Iran and its proxies, backed by Russia and China, on the other.

Washington has played a key role in supplying Israel with military aid and diplomatic cover, while Moscow has pledged to send Iran fighter jets and air defense technology. It is also purchasing Iranian weapons for its own war in Ukraine, providing Tehran with much-needed cash.

Moreover, Israel is currently engaged on multiple fronts.

First, its war continues in Gaza, where more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed. Hamas has been