Israel invasion could push Lebanon into total state collapse

For the past year, many have feared that the war between Israel and Hamas will spill over into neighboring countries and drag the Middle East into a devastating conflict. While there is still hope that the most dire predictions of regional turmoil will not come to pass, there can be no doubt that the war has now spread to Lebanon.

The main battlefront is shifting to southern Lebanon and northern Israel, and the main protagonists are Israel and Hezbollah – the Lebanese self-styled resistance group-cum-political party that is deeply rooted in Lebanon’s political system, economy and much of its society.

In mid-September, Israel announced it was shifting its defense policy towards its northern border, where 70,000 people had been displaced over the past year by rockets fired by Hezbollah. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said its war aims had shifted to include ensuring these civilians could return to their homes in safety.

After a fortnight of missile strikes into Lebanon, Israel claims to have eliminated much of the Hezbollah leadership as well as knocking out a great deal of its military infrastructure. This next phase of the conflict will pose more intense challenges for all involved and present great risks to the region and beyond.

But perhaps lost in the debates about whether Israel can defeat Hezbollah (and Hamas in Gaza), how Iran (Hezbollah and Hamas’ main backer) will respond and who will ultimately win, is the possibility that Lebanon could fail as a state if this war escalates. And that serves no one’s interests.

Lebanon is a vulnerable country that has been plagued by devastating economic and political crises, corruption, human rights violations and a breakdown in trust between the government and society over the