Nasrallah killing leaves Hezbollah leaderless and vulnerable

The assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike on September 28 is a decisive blow – not only to Hezbollah but also to Iran, which has lost its greatest ally in the Middle East.

In recent days, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has risen to its most intense level since the end of the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006. The day after Hamas’ brutal October 7 terror attack, in which 1,200 Israelis were massacred – many of them civilians murdered in their homes in towns near the Gaza border or at the nearby Nova music festival – Hezbollah opened another front against Israel.

Hezbollah, which has been designated by the US and UK governments as a terror organization, was quick to express support and solidarity with Hamas and immediately began launching rockets at civilian and military targets in northern Israel.

Fearing that Hezbollah might carry out a similar incursion in Galilee, resulting in a massacre of the Jewish civilian population, the Israeli government evacuated roughly 100,000 citizens living near the Lebanese border. These people have now been displaced from their homes for a year.

Until recently, the fighting between the parties was characterized by relatively low intensity. Hezbollah has launched thousands of rockets and drones at Israeli civilian and military targets.

These have mainly been in the north of the country, killing dozens of Israelis since October 2023. The IDF has responded with airstrikes and artillery fire against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including rocket depots and other military infrastructure.

But to an extent, the exchanges were seen as being below the level that might escalate into all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.

In July, a