China, India must be ready to seize peace in Ukraine, not just the West

The lion’s share of this US aid package is for Ukraine, with US$60.84 billion earmarked, including for military aid. There is pressing urgency for more US support, because of the relentless pressure Russian forces are applying on Ukraine. After 26 months, both sides are locked in an arm wrestle, unable to force the other to the table.

There is arguably a moral dilemma in which helping Ukraine to fight, rather than exploring other ways to end the fighting, contributes to prolonging the war. At one level, the ethical equation is clear: Ukraine is the victim of an illegal war and needs to be able to defend itself. And it is Russian aggression that is the main factor driving the war.

The situation has moved on significantly since, and both Ukraine and Russia are stubbornly committed to their goals. For Ukraine’s leadership, it is to expel the Russians utterly. For Russia’s leadership under President Vladimir Putin, it is to bring at least a large part of the Ukrainian state under Moscow’s control.

Even if a return to negotiations is currently implausible, this will not necessarily be so indefinitely. War without end is costly, in human lives for the combatant countries and in budgetary terms for the US and Ukraine’s European partners.

There are risks in the currently preferred Western strategy of helping Ukraine restore its position of military strength, with two clear milestones.

India and China are major trading partners with Russia and while the war in Ukraine is happening a continent away, playing some kind of de-escalatory role in the years to come will present a test of their diplomatic clout in this new and more Asian-centred century.

Diplomatic equities and influence do not come out of thin air, however, and it would be