Europe hardening line on Russia amid Ukraine losses

Two weeks after the US president, Joe Biden, signed off on a US$60 billion package of military aid to Kiev, the impact on the battlefield has been relatively modest.

According to an assessment by the Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War on May 6, Russian offensive operations have continued unabated. Vladimir Putin’s invasion force continues to achieve incremental territorial gains along key parts of the frontline in the east and south.

The most critical battle at the moment appears to be around the eastern town of Chasiv Yar, just ten kilometers west of Bakhmut, which Russia captured a year ago. If the town were to fall, it would be an indication of both Russia’s success on the battlefield and the incredibly slow pace of the conflict. Nevertheless, it would be a further indication that despite the US aid package momentum in the war remains with Russia, for now.

It would have been unrealistic to expect Ukraine to regain the military initiative immediately. This is despite the fact that the US defense department had already positioned key supplies, including air defense capabilities and artillery ammunition, in advance of Biden’s signature and was able to deliver these to Ukraine in some cases within hours.

But the continuing Russian advance also indicates likely delays on the Ukrainian side in distributing new supplies to frontline troops. And even when these logistical problems are overcome, they will not necessarily quickly make up for the unfavorable overall balance in equipment and manpower that Ukraine still faces.

But neither should the impact of the US aid package be dismissed as irrelevant. It provides Ukraine with a lifeline.

Its stocks of vital war-fighting equipment had been depleted