Canada’s ‘absurd’ South China Sea play: challenging Beijing or undermining Asean?

The stakes are high. About US$5.5 trillion in global trade passes through the South China Sea’s strategic sea lanes each year, including a large portion of Canada’s commercial interests, according to Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at Tokyo’s International Christian University.

“Southeast Asian countries are trying to bring in extra-regional partners to balance the size of China,” Nagy said, with the goal of preventing US-China tensions from spiralling in a way that negatively affects the region.

After all, the Asean charter demands that the bloc remain the primary driver of external partnerships, rather than the dictates of great power rivalry.

Yet Canada’s entry into the South China Sea may make it harder for Asean to achieve a unified stance. Analysts say a divided bloc ultimately benefits China, as it can more easily pursue its preferred mode of bilateral negotiations rather than dealing with Asean as a whole.

However, Malaysian foreign policy analyst Azmi Hassan said the presence of non-Asean actors made it difficult for the bloc to “achieve one voice” on the South China Sea dispute.

“With Canada joining, it is more difficult for Asean consensus to be achieved and this in a way benefits Beijing since a divided Asean will make it easier for China to pursue its bilateral mode of discussion,” said Azmi, a fellow at Malaysia’s National Council of Professors.

The problem, he explained, is that Asean is fundamentally split – some nations align with the US, others with China, while a third group “seem to care less since they are not directly involved in the dispute”.

Azmi questioned whether the South China Sea was truly the best theatre for Canada to flex its military muscle. “If safeguarding