Will Philippines’ new defence deals with New Zealand, Japan provoke China?

Analysts say the moves align with both Wellington and Tokyo’s broader strategic interests of ensuring regional stability and safeguarding their own security concerns. However, they also warn that it could provoke a reaction from Beijing, potentially escalating military aggression and diplomatic tensions in the region.

Under the Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement signed on Monday, New Zealand and the Philippines can provide each other with logistical support during joint exercises, training, humanitarian assistance, and disaster response operations.

Talks over an agreement for joint military exercises and humanitarian missions are also likely to be concluded “in the near future”, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo said in a Monday joint press briefing with visiting New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Raymond Peters.

Manila is also on the verge of signing a deal with Tokyo that would allow forces from both sides to train in each other’s territories.

Japan has backed the Philippines in its own maritime row with Beijing in the South China Sea and has also supplied Manila with more than a dozen patrol vessels and other military equipment over the years.

Manila in 2020 bought four mobile long-range air surveillance radar systems from Japan to bolster its detection capabilities in the South China Sea. Two of the units have already been delivered, while the other two are expected to arrive within the next two years.

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Manila’s expansion of defence partnerships comes as tensions in the South China Sea grow over Beijing’s assertion of its maritime claims.

China has refused to accept the verdict.