Will Israel-Iran conflict trigger another ‘Middle East war’?

April 17, 2024

BEIJING – Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have reached a critical juncture, but both countries have sent clear messages they want to avoid further escalation and larger conflicts. While Israel has expressed its intention to retaliate, its stance suggests a proportional response, emphasizing equivalence and deterrence. Any retaliation must match Iran in military targets chosen and scale of attack. However, to serve both as a counterstrike and a deterrent, it would need to exceed Iran’s intensity.

The future remains uncertain, with the possibility of the region getting entrenched in a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation. If Israel’s retaliation results in significant Iranian casualties, Iran may be compelled to retaliate again, leading to an escalation spiral. Nonetheless, Israel’s retaliation is inevitable and must be commensurate with Iran’s actions.

Under pressure from the United States and amid the ongoing Gaza crisis, the chances of a full-scale regional war seem minimal at the moment. The US has exerted significant pressure on Israel, with US President Joe Biden, Defense Secretary Llyod Austin, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken contacting Israeli leaders simultaneously, expressing condemnation and support while subtly urging restraint. The implicit message to Israel is clear: the matter should not escalate further. The US does not support large-scale retaliation or preemptive attacks against Iran, fearing a significant escalation of the situation. Thus, while diplomatic efforts have been extensive, they are primarily aimed at reassuring Israel and discouraging aggressive actions.

The crisis underscores the US’ longstanding strategic goal of