Why oil prices haven't skyrocketed on Middle East supply fears — yet

Oil prices have jumped more than $5 a barrel since the start of the week amid intensifying fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure.

The rally, which puts crude futures on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, has surprised many market observers in that it appears to be somewhat subdued given what's at stake.

Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risk of a widening conflict in the Middle East, particularly given that the fallout could disrupt oil flows from the key exporting region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It's estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran's oil facilities.

Goldman Sachs says a sustained fall in Iranian output could send oil prices up $20 a barrel, while Swedish bank SEB has warned that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel in an extreme scenario.

For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. This refers to a trading strategy in which an investor hopes to profit if the market value of an asset declines.

"There is a very large short position, not only in oil, you [also] see it in equities. In general, the investors don't like this space. Why? They are concerned about a big oil supply glut next year," Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday.

"When we look at the situation today, it is starkly different. Inventories are low, curve is backwardated, demand is middling, it's not great but now you have [China's] stimulus package on top of that, and you still have the OPEC production cuts,"