Who can the US really count on in a war with China over Taiwan?

In the worst-case scenario of a China-US showdown over Taiwan, will America’s allies stand with it back to back? My answer is: not necessarily. America has over 60 allies and partners around the globe. But when it comes to a war with China, those helpful to the US won’t be more than a handful.

It’s similar with South Korea. Deeply worried about a nuclearised North Korea, Seoul cannot afford to show hostility towards Beijing, which has a latent treaty obligation of military help for North Korea.

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In a war in the Taiwan Strait, Australia, too, is likely to let the US use its military bases. But Canberra also makes clear it has not promised to participate in any Taiwan conflict in exchange for American nuclear-powered submarines.

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Whether American allies join the US in a war with China depends first on whether the US gets involved. If Washington concludes that the latest Taiwanese leader is a troublemaker – as president George W. Bush was rumoured to have referred to former president Chen Shui-bian – why would it write a blank cheque with American blood?

That Washington can count on its allies is a best-case scenario – and more likely, wishful thinking. Alliance is a marriage of convenience. America’s alliances in the region are more the sort of marriage described by George Bernard Shaw – between a man who can’t sleep with the window shut and a woman who can’t sleep with the window open.

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University