When West’s weakness eggs on bellicose Putin, Kyiv must respond

There is scant evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is intimidated by the West. On the contrary, the Russian leader has demonstrated a remarkable ability to intimidate his adversaries.

Nearly two and a half years into the largest European invasion since the Second World War, Kyiv’s partners remain overly cautious, fixated on avoiding escalation, and continue to impose restrictive measures on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

Managing self-restraint and avoiding talk of escalation, the appeasement strategy of the West, will only lead to tragic outcomes that the world has faced before.

Timeline

In 2014, after Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea, US President Barack Obama was insistent on providing “off ramps” for Putin and refused to send the Ukrainians even defensive weapons, so as not to provoke the Russian leader. Putin moved on from Crimea right past those “off ramps” and into the Donbas. Obama continued to double down on appeasing Russia.

In 2015, Ukrainian special forces began conducting raids into occupied Crimea. In one incident, they managed to kill several Russian fighters, including the son of a Russian general. Obama was deeply frustrated once he learned of what Ukraine was doing in Crimea and some of his top advisors wanted to shut down the CIA program that was helping build up a new defense intelligence unit for Ukraine.

Following Russia’s invasion of Donbas in 2014, Putin would eventually freeze the war in Ukraine. This gave him the ability to ignite war as he wanted. Putin also thought the Minsk Accords would give him a trojan horse inside Ukraine, allowing him to control the country.

At the same time, European countries such as Germany continued to build energy dependence on Russia,