What Prabowo means for Indonesia and the world

Controversial former general Prabowo Subianto, the former son-in-law of long-time authoritarian leader Suharto, looks set to be Indonesia’s next leader after securing what appears to be a convincing victory in this week’s election.

It may be a month before official results are confirmed, but exit poll “quick counts” from Indonesia’s well-regarded polling companies show Prabowo winning close to 60% of the vote, which would be a landslide victory. There will likely be no need for a run-off election in June.

The runner-up, Anies Baswedan, appears to have secured around 24 to 25% of the vote, while Ganjar Pranowo is sitting on just 17%.

Prabowo is therefore the clear choice of Indonesia’s voters, even though he was rejected three times in previous bids for the presidency or vice presidency; there are claims of human rights abuses against him (including alleged kidnappings, forced disappearances and war crimes by troops under his command); and his campaign was marred by accusations of unethical conduct and collusion.

How did he achieve this remarkable turnaround, and what kind of leader will he be for the country?

Prabowo’s winning alliance with Jokowi

A key reason for Prabowo’s convincing victory is the fact he was not running against the immensely popular incumbent Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who had defeated him in two previous elections and still enjoys approval ratings of well over 70%.

Jokowi was barred by a two-term limit from running again. So, this time – to the surprise of many – he decided to throw his very considerable electoral weight behind his former rival, Prabowo.

Although Jokowi claimed to be neutral in the campaign and never explicitly endorsed any candidate, his position became clear when it was announced that