Vietnam’s Communist Party grapples with succession dilemma after Nguyen Phu Trong’s death

Trong’s passing marks the first time in over three decades that such a high-ranking Vietnamese official has died while still in office. Experts warn this power vacuum could trigger a period of “power competition” as the party navigates the challenge of transferring authority to a younger generation.

Hanoi has announced plans for a state funeral this week, with two days of national mourning declared in Trong’s honour. The government called the late leader’s 13-year tenure “a huge loss” for the party, the state, and the Vietnamese people.

Major policy shifts are unlikely in the near term following Trong’s death, according to Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington. Acting leader Lam will serve in the position until the Communist Party’s 14th Congress, expected to be held in January 2026, Abuza said.

“For the next 17 months, there will be little policymaking, as the Communist Party of Vietnam is focused on personnel selection and policy grafting ahead of the Congress,” he said. “Even if Trong were alive, that would be the case. Vietnam is in its lame-duck session.”

Abuza views this as potentially beneficial for Vietnam’s economic development, as Trong was a “lifelong communist ideologue” more concerned with control than growth. In contrast, the pragmatic Lam “knows that the party’s legitimacy comes from economic growth”.

He said Lam was well-positioned to be elected general secretary at the 14th Congress, noting that Trong had suffered a stroke in late 2020 and was in poor health, even as the party remained “deadlocked” on finding a successor.

“Trong really believed that he was the only person to carry out the ‘blazing furnace’ anti-corruption campaign,” Abuza said, referring