SE Asia a haven or hazard amid global turmoil?

Almost a quarter of a century ago, Southeast Asia was considered a hotspot of political and economic global risk.

The region was the epicenter of a devastating economic and financial crisis in 1997, which triggered waves of political unrest and transition. There followed the 2001 Al-Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington that spawned terror attacks by Islamic extremists in the Philippines and Indonesia.

Today, much of the rest of the world is going through even more uncertain times, yet Southeast Asia is enjoying an economic boom. The region enjoys unprecedented political stability and, with the notable exception of Myanmar, is largely at peace.

GDP growth in Southeast Asia was close to 5% in 2023, and with China beset by economic woes and geopolitical risk, the region attracted close to a fifth of global FDI, making Southeast Asia one of the fastest-growing regions in the world.

As ASEAN foreign ministers gather in Vientiane for their annual ministerial summit, it might seem appropriate to celebrate the region’s position of relative strength. But this economic prosperity and relative stability cannot be taken for granted in a more uncertain world.

Political uncertainty has traditionally been a high risk for the region, with two military coups in Thailand since 2006, not to mention the military coup in Myanmar in 2021.

Yet for all the criticism of how democratic pluralism is managed, there have been relatively smooth leadership transitions through the ballot box in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Last year, veteran Cambodian strongman Hun Sen transferred the reins of power to his son Hun Manet. Even the turmoil within Vietnam’s Communist Party has not led to political unrest or violence.

These historic