US needs smarter policies to avoid a China war

A group of men – knives and axes at the ready – boards opposing ships and immobilizes them. Think this is from the Age of Sail? Think again.

China’s recent escalation of its dispute with the Philippines is another example of Beijing’s willingness to defend its claimed territory. This event follows a similar escalation in 2020 along the Sino-Indian border where both sides used sticks and stones to defend their claims, not to mention China’s military drills around Taiwan.

With the US pledging to come to the Philippines’ and Japan’s aid over China-claimed rocks and reefs and possibly stepping in to defend Taiwan, Washington must better understand Beijing’s willingness to fight for its perceived territory – and establish a more effective policy – or risk a destabilizing conflict.

The risk of war over China’s disputed territories is real. Since at least 2012, Beijing has actively pressed its claims, including building military bases in the South China Sea and maintaining a regular coast guard presence around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

However, China has been willing to use force todefend its claims since at least 2003 when they became part of its “core interests,” as they are viewed as vital to national survival.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” of the “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” by 2049 further ties these territories to the political legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party, effectively making them uncompromisable.

Until resolved, China will likely continue claiming disputed territory regardless of regime – leaving a conflict with Beijing perpetually on the table. Recovering China’s lost territory has been a goal since the late 1800s.

This was true when the Republic of China (ROC) controlled the