US-China relations frigid but not a New Cold War

Portraying the United States and China as locked in a “New Cold War” has become something of a cottage industry, providing provocative fodder for think tanks, the foreign policy cognoscenti and the broader commentariat while generating reams of stirring material for books, articles and documentary films.

Last month, Time magazine ran an article entitled “How the US Can Win the New Cold War.” Foreign Policy hedged somewhat with a “No, This Is Not a Cold War – Yet” headline. Asia Times has published several articles and op-eds under a New Cold War heading.

China’s English-language state media has likewise invoked the historical analogy. Xinhua, China’s official press agency, recently claimed that the “US attempts to contain China with a Cold War style approach.”

People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, said in 2023 that the “international community must take action to oppose the new Cold War.”

To be sure, analysts, experts and propagandists are all struggling for a glib analogy for today’s Sino-US rivalry. What’s clear is that US-China relations are deteriorating under the weight of escalating trade, tech and ideological wars. But is it really a New Cold War, similar and akin to the old Cold War?

China argues that the US is a hegemon trying to thwart its rightful rise in classic imperialist style. The US, on the other hand, criticizes China’s coercion, especially in the Indo-Pacific, and claims it is undermining the US-led “rules-based” order. But ultimately, each wants to limit the other’s influence over global politics and economics.

Obviously, those tensions are hottest around Taiwan, which the US has vaguely committed to defending if China invades. Should rhetoric erupt into confrontation,