Trio of court cases in Thailand ramps up uncertainty, puts markets on edge

BANGKOK – Three court cases in Thailand, including one that has ensnared the Prime Minister, have heightened political uncertainty in South-east Asia’s second-largest economy and sent investors fleeing its stock market.

The Thai Constitutional Court on June 12 will take up a case that could potentially dissolve the progressive political party that won the closely contested 2023 General Election, besides considering another that could lead to the dismissal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.

In another case next week, influential former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will be formally indicted for allegedly insulting the monarchy.

The outcome of the cases could leave Thai politics in disarray, raising tensions between the powerful conservative, royalist camp and its rivals — a pattern that has dogged the political landscape for decades, said analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak.

“They can keep (people) out and kick out office-holders. But they cannot take office themselves because they cannot win the election,” said Professor Thitinan, who teaches at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, referring to the conservative establishment.

“I think certainly we’re seeing another round of turmoil.”

The looming politically charged cases sent Thailand’s main stock index down to its lowest level in 3½ years on June 10. The bourse has fallen 6.9 per cent so far in 2024, making it Asia’s worst-performing market.

Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul told reporters on June 11 that the market decline reflected the country’s “not good” economy.

Worst-case scenario

The case against Mr Srettha took hold following a complaint by 40 military-appointed senators in May alleging that the Prime Minister breached the Constitution while making a