US, China intensify battle for Pacific dominance in new ‘Great Game’

Island nations scattered across the Pacific Ocean are at the centre of an intensifying competition between China and the US for maritime routes, deepwater ports and other strategic assets in what the Lowy Institute calls a new “Great Game.”

The countries’ proximity to key shipping lanes and the communication cables that criss-cross the Pacific floor, together with fisheries and seabed minerals, also encourage the rivalry, Lowy said in a report on Wednesday. But it’s the region’s maritime location between Asia, North America and Australia that is set to keep it at the forefront of major powers’ defence strategies.

“The Pacific’s geopolitical landscape is increasingly crowded, with multiple powers vying for influence,” report authors Mihai Sora, Jessica Collins and Meg Keen said. “China is expanding its reach through diplomatic relations, infrastructure projects, and development finance, while traditional partners such as Australia and the US strive to maintain their influence.”

That is a significant turnaround for island leaders who used to complain that Western nations did not pay enough attention to the region. Lowy warns the new strategic focus is set to challenge good governance and transparency, given opportunities for local political actors to advance narrow interests over what best serves the people of the Pacific.

The Pacific region is further grappling with rising sea levels due to climate change, as well as a lost decade of development following Covid.

China is now a significant player in the Pacific via development finance, diplomatic outreach and infrastructure such as ports, airports and telecommunications. It’s also pushing to play a greater role in key sectors such as the military, policing, digital