China or India? Sri Lanka’s presidential election becomes a battleground for influence

Other aspirants include incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, contesting as an independent candidate instead of representing the United National Party (UNP) he has been associated with for close to five decades.

Sajith Premadasa, who split from the UNP in 2019, will represent Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), while Anura Kumara Dissanayake of National People’s Power (NPP), and leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) are also candidates.

Analysts say the outcome of the polls could shift the country’s delicate geopolitical balancing act between its two regional powerhouse neighbours – especially if the NPP’s Dissanayake wins a majority.

Yet Wickremesinghe’s pro-India leanings are unmistakable. He has touted plans for currency integration with the Indian rupee and welcomed high-profile Indian investments, like those from the Adani conglomerate, which is thought to have close ties to Modi’s government. This has drawn vocal resistance from the opposition led by Premadasa.

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China’s Belt and Road, 10 years on

India has a long and complex history of working with both the incumbent Wickremesinghe and the previously dominant Rajapaksa clan. Yet amid this tangled web of relations, one thing is clear: whichever candidate emerges victorious, China will be eager to engage. The “bilateral relationship is entrenched”, Samaranayake said – Beijing has made deep inroads in Sri Lanka, and it’s unlikely to let a change in leadership disrupt its strategic foothold.

The potential rise of the NPP, however, has Delhi on edge. Its fiercely anti-India platform and its close ties to China are seen as a major thorn in the side for India, according to Harindra B Dassanayake, an analyst at Muragala Centre for Progressive Politics and Policy in Sri