Can China’s restraint inspire a more peaceful rivalry with the US?

Graham Allison, a Harvard professor who is best known for his 2017 book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, observed in The National Interest late last week, “China’s rise from essentially nowhere to become the leading rival of the United States in the Olympics mirrors its rise in virtually every other dimension to become the defining geopolitical rival in the [21st century].”

Beijing knows more acutely that even allowing for America’s global supremacy as a result of a series of fortunate events, Washington had been painfully patient about its fruition. By the late 19th century, America’s purchasing power parity had caught up with Britain’s. US gross domestic product was nearly triple that of Britain’s when World War I started, yet it did not take the baton of world hegemony till 1945. This also explains Beijing’s strategic forbearance, in both economic and military domains.

According to The Economist, a mere US$1.5 trillion in overseas sales were earned in 2023 by publicly listed companies in China, as opposed to US$5.8 trillion and US$6.4 trillion respectively by those in the US and Europe. One can imagine how big a catch-up game China’s businesses have to play beyond its borders, while those who have vocally indicted Beijing find no reason to cease being critical.

05:22

Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues

Let’s hope Beijing’s strategic forbearance continues. In this sense, perhaps the quote from Allison should evoke a wish for the US-China geopolitical rivalry to mirror the Paris Olympics – a fierce, but peaceful, competition.

Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in