Trump win potential puts Asia on a tariff-ied edge

Rising anticipation of a “red wave” sweeping Donald Trump and his Republicans to electoral victory on November 5 suddenly has Asia contemplating a plethora of “what-if?” scenarios.

Though the US election has been extremely tight, Kamala Harris’ Democrats consistently had a statistical edge. Now, betting markets are leaning toward a Republican sweep of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives that’s forcing Asia to confront a “Trump trade” scenario for 2025.

Most Asian leaders prefer Harris, as she would represent continuity from Joe Biden’s presidency. Trump’s trade policies alone would upend the global financial system as rarely before

The most immediate threat from Tokyo to Jakarta to the rest of export-oriented Asia is Trump’s supersized tariffs. The 60% levy that Trump plans for China will imperil growth in Asia’s biggest economy and upend supply chains everywhere.

UBS Group thinks that tariff alone will cut China’s annual growth by more than half – chopping 2.5 percentage points off the gross domestic product (GDP) of the globe’s top trading nation. China grew just 4.6% in the third quarter year on year amid weak retail spending, property investment and new home sales.

Over time, UBS economist Wang Tao warns of the “risk of other countries raising tariffs on imports from China as well,” kicking off a potential arms race of tit-for-tat trade curbs.

It’s not the end of the world, of course. As Tianchen Xu, senior economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, notes, China’s full-year GDP target of around 5% “is now within reach with extra stimulus in the fourth quarter.”

Despite the magnitude of these “challenges,” Xu notes, “China’s economy is not incurable as some would suggest.” But Trump making giant