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I’ve been talking about vibes a lot over the past week, so let’s talk about something a little more substantive. Trump and his movement basically have two main policy ideas: 1.) immigration restriction, and 2.) more tariffs. Let’s think about the second of these.
Whoever wins the presidency this November will bestow upon the United States an industrial policy for manufacturing. Not the same policy, though. The two candidates will use different tools and support different industries.
US President Joe Biden raised tariffs on Chinese-made goods sharply in May, claiming that the “Chinese government has cheated by pouring money into Chinese companies … hurting competitors who play by the rules.” The tariffs are 25% on steel and aluminum, 50% on semiconductors and solar panels and 100% on electric vehicles.
TOKYO – The most important thing about this week’s trilateral summit between China, Japan and South Korea is that it happened at all.
Joe Biden is about to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. A 100% tariff is an absolutely huge tariff. It means that Chinese EV makers would have to sell their EVs in the US at half the price of EVs manufactured elsewhere in order to be competitive. That just isn’t going to happen.
With the visit of Xi Jinping to Paris and Budapest last week, it’s clear that Europe and China are not breaking up—and that France and especially Hungary are keys to a productive relationship.
Given the spate of news about international trade lately, Americans might be surprised to learn that the United States isn’t very dependent on it. Indeed, looking at trade as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) – a metric economists sometimes call the “openness index” – the US is one of the least trade-oriented nations in the world.