The deterrence needed to prevent World War III

In hindsight, wars often look as if they were inevitable. Tensions were building up. National ambitions were clashing. Mutual fears and suspicions were growing. Historical grievances were simmering.

Yet in truth, they are never inevitable. They depend on decisions made by men – leaders ordering wars have almost always been men – who could have chosen to act differently.

I have been thinking about this a lot over the past year because I have been researching and writing a new book about the risk of a war breaking out between China and the United States.

The title of the English book, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies and Routledge, is “Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict over Taiwan.” But the title of the translated (and expanded) Japanese version that has also just been translated by Fusosha, is “How to Stop World War Three“, which you might think is a somewhat dramatic title.

Would a war between the US and China really become counted as “World War III”? And could it be stopped?

The answer to the first is obvious: this would be the first war in history between two nuclear-armed superpowers, and it would be a war that would determine the nature of global leadership for decades to come.

With stakes so high, we have to expect that such a conflict would widen to include other countries, including Japan, and, sadly, that it would escalate to include the use of nuclear weapons.

The answer to the second question is, however, more reassuring and takes us back to the question of inevitability. If such a war were to start, it would be the result either of

• a deliberate calculation made by one side about the prospects of prevailing, for example over an invasion of Taiwan; or
• an impulsive