Taiwan’s election is shaped by economic realities, not just Beijing’s threats to use force

BANGKOK (AP) — Beijing’s threats to use force to claim self-governed Taiwan aren’t just about missiles and warships. Hard economic realities will be at play as voters head to the polls Saturday, though the relationship is complicated.

The economy has slowed since the pandemic, with growth in 2023 estimated at only 1.4%. That partly reflects inevitable ups and downs in demand for computer chips and other exports, and a slowing of the Chinese economy. But longer-term challenges such as inequality, housing affordability and unemployment are especially vital for younger voters, but often are eclipsed by China’s looming presence.

The two sides split in 1949 after a civil war and have no official relations but are linked by tens of billions of dollars in trade and investment. Beijing has been courting Taiwan investment, while at the same time flying fighter planes and sailing warships near the island to enforce its stance that the island must eventually unite with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Taiwan imports nearly all its energy, leaving it vulnerable to blockades.

The election’s outcome could impact relations between China and the United States and also affect decisions on investment and manufacturing far into the future. The Chinese mainland and Hong Kong buy about 35% of Taiwan’s exports, though their share has been falling, and account for about one-quarter of its imports.

Despite Beijing’s muscle flexing, any overt military action would come at a huge cost to China itself. The Taiwan Strait plays a vital role in China’s trade with the world. Bloomberg Economics calculated the potential cost to the world economy at $10 trillion.

So far, China’s moves have been piecemeal. At times it has banned imports of hundreds