Taiwan: Next domino looks set to fall in Tuvalu

There is breaking news that suggests Tuvalu’s prime minister, Kausea Natano, has lost his seat in local elections. This sets the stage for Seve Paeniu and Enele Sopoaga to make a move for the prime ministership.

In Taipei, these events will be seen as the latest in a series of extremely unwelcome foreign-policy developments.

While Natano was committed to maintaining diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, Paeniu has expressed an interest in exploring a switch to the People’s Republic of China. Meanwhile, Sopoaga has advocated walking away from the recently negotiated Falepili Union Treaty with Australia.

If either succeeds in gaining power, US President Joe Biden’s administration will be faced with a major foreign-policy conundrum.

On the one hand, Australia is not committed to fighting for the diplomatic recognition of Taiwan by Tuvalu. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong recently signaled that her government would not intervene in such a decision.

On the other hand, the Biden administration has shown no interest in extending a similar US compact of free association to Tuvalu.

It therefore only seems like a matter of time before Tuvalu drops Taiwan and makes the switch to the PRC.

That switch would almost certainly have major knock-on effects for US national-security and foreign-policy interests.

Right now, the only other Pacific Island countries that recognize Taiwan are the Freely Associated States of Palau and Marshall Islands.

As a consolation prize, the Biden administration could try to flip the remaining Freely Associated State, the Federated States of Micronesia.

However, that would be a problematic move. It would simply reinforce the notion that the regional diplomatic recognition of Taiwan hinges on compacts of