South Korea’s military has a new enemy: Population math

Seoul, South Korea CNN —

South Korea, with the world’s lowest birth rate, may soon find itself without enough troops to keep its military fully staffed as it deals with new threats in an increasingly tense Western Pacific region, analysts say.

Always wary of North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, South Korea keeps an active-duty force of about half a million troops. But with a birth rate of only 0.78 children per woman over a lifetime, the math might be South Korea’s biggest enemy at the moment, and experts say it has no choice but to downsize its forces.

FILE PHOTO: A woman holding up her baby is silhouetted against the backdrop of N Seoul Tower, commonly known as Namsan Tower, in Seoul, South Korea, October 2, 2018. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo

South Korea to see population plummet to 1970s levels, government says

“With our current birth rate, the future is predetermined. Downsizing of the force will be inevitable,” said Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University.

To maintain current troops levels, the South Korean military needs to enlist or conscript 200,000 soldiers a year, he said.

But in 2022, fewer than 250,000 babies were born. Assuming about a 50-50 male-female split, that means in 20 years, when those children are of the age to join the military, only about 125,000 men will be available for the 200,000 spots needed.

Women are not conscripted in South Korea, and volunteer females accounted for only 3.6% of the current Korean military, according to Defense Ministry figures.

And the annual number of newborns is only forecasted to drop further, to 220,000 in 2025 and 160,000 in 2072, according to Statistics Korea.

Preparing for two decades

While South Korea’s declining