South Korea’s military at a dual crisis crossroads

South Korea, now the world’s sixth-ranked military power, has demonstrated remarkable strategic and technological prowess. The signing of the Washington Declaration in April between South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and US President Joe Biden marked a pivotal moment in bolstering nuclear deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.

Complementing this pact, the establishment of the Nuclear Consultative Group fortifies South Korea’s security infrastructure, providing a shield against regional threats. Nonetheless, this triumph overshadows a dual crisis—both external and internal—facing the South Korean military.

External challenges: Multilayered geopolitical risks

South Korea continues to grapple with the intractable crisis emanating from North Korea. Despite diplomatic efforts, North Korea’s missile launches in 2022 surged significantly.

North Korea also recently announced that it has successfully tested a solid-fuel engine for a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, presenting the capacity for surprise attacks without the need for refueling.

This appears to be the natural course for North Korea since the failure of the Hanoi summit in 2019, after which it abandoned efforts to normalize relations with the United States and turned to strengthening ties with China and Russia.

South Korea’s security considerations are also entangled in the complex dynamics of the great power competition between the United States and China, especially in the Taiwan Strait. The possibility of US-China military confrontations, coupled with escalating military tensions in the Taiwan Strait, raises the specter of a “Taiwan contingency.”

In the event of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, South Korea would face a critical decision regarding its