South China Sea: why Philippines’ Duterte may be doing U-turn on pro-Beijing stance

In a Sunday press conference aired by local media, Duterte said that as a Filipino he would insist the West Philippine Sea – Manila’s term for waters in the South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone – belonged to the Filipinos, a stance that appeared to contradict his soft foreign policy towards Beijing when he was in office.

In the last six years of his term, Duterte affirmed the “importance of continuing” talks in solving the maritime dispute. He worked to rebuild ties with Beijing that had frayed after the international arbitration court in The Hague rejected China’s expansive claims in the contested waterway in 2016. Duterte was also hostile towards the United States and steered Manila away from military cooperation with Washington.

Political analyst Edmund Tayao, president and CEO of the think tank Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, told This Week in Asia that Duterte’s new stance was a tactic to win over many Filipinos who have been wary of Beijing since his daughter Sara and the country’s vice president announced that three of her family members, including the senior Duterte, would run in next year’s Senate election.

“That’s the only likely reason. He has to take the popular position otherwise many will likely shift [away from] support he originally enjoyed,” Tayao said. “It seems he remains popular, but no longer as before.”

The survey – conducted in March as part of a series by private pollster Octa Research tracking Filipino attitudes towards the South China Sea dispute since 2021 – showed that 73 per cent of the 1,200 respondents nationwide favoured “further asserting the Philippines’ territorial rights through military action, such as expanded naval patrols and troop presence in