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Analysts warn China’s aggressive moves in the region, including its detention policy, could escalate into armed conflict as Beijing continues to push a strategy designed to provoke other nations “to be the first to fire”.
“We urge the [People’s Republic of China] to cease harassment of Philippine vessels lawfully operating in the Philippine exclusive economic zone,” the envoy added, stressing Manila’s “sovereign rights” and “freedoms of navigation” in the South China Sea for all ships.
Manila and Beijing have been locked in a months-long territorial row in the South China Sea. China’s coastguard also reportedly seized two lifeboats from the Philippine vessel.
Last year, China was the biggest importer of goods into the Philippines with a total value of US$29.4 billion, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. The Philippines exported almost US$11 billion of goods to China over the same year, indicating that the Southeast Asian country ran a trade deficit of about US$18 billion with its neighbour.
While some analysts agreed that now was the right time to “quickly develop” the maritime region’s resources, others warned that “political considerations” must be taken into account given Manila’s territorial disputes with Beijing and the failure of prior joint energy agreements.
While analysts said the Philippine government’s legal action could be successful, they warned Beijing would likely respond with countermeasures against Manila and its people.
However, some experts cautioned that there could be major shifts under a second Trump administration, including troop withdrawals and changes to mutual defence agreements, underscoring the unpredictability of Trump’s potential policy agenda and its impact on strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific.