South China Sea: how a Trump win could reshape the US-Philippines alliance

However, some experts cautioned that there could be major shifts under a second Trump administration, including troop withdrawals and changes to mutual defence agreements, underscoring the unpredictability of Trump’s potential policy agenda and its impact on strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific.

“We are confident that there will be no new major changes,” Romualdez said, as quoted by the Manila-based Daily Tribune newspaper.

Edmund Tayao, a political analyst and professor at the San Beda Graduate School of Law in Manila, said the situation in the Pacific had changed significantly since Trump was last in office, with China’s efforts to control disputed waterways in the region only growing in scope.

“We are not only talking about the WPS here. In fact, China is engaged in a number of maritime disputes around Asia. Those are very important trading routes that will affect the whole international community. If international trade is significantly affected, then Americans will be affected also,” Tayao explained.

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What if Trump wins?

“So even if Trump is not in favour of spending more money on supporting international interests, this time he will have to reconsider because spending will not be limited to international interests,” he told This Week in Asia.

Tayao said that is the reason why Philippine officials like Romualdez are confident that a second Trump administration will not alter its relationship with Manila.

Ramon Beleno III, head of the political science and history department at Ateneo de Davao University in southern Davao City, had a different view, arguing that Trump might well change his foreign policy stances should he return to the White House.

“We know the Republicans are more conservative. If Trump sees China as