South China Sea: Duterte-Xi pact investigation fuels political payback allegations

Political analyst and former presidential political adviser Ronald Llamas said the fact that the House of Representatives, which Duterte lorded over when he was president, was starting an investigation against him meant the move was political payback engineered by Marcos Jnr.

Llamas, who chairs political risk firm Galahad Consulting Agency, told This Week in Asia “for now, [Duterte] is the main threat to Marcos, especially after all of his attacks”.

Those attacks included threats of “insurrection, uprising, mutiny, even hints of assassination”, he said.

Llamas pointed out that during a rally in January in the Duterte stronghold of Davao City, the ex-president’s son, Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, had called on Marcos Jnr to resign and ominously referenced the Romanovs and Mussolini – figures notorious for being killed by their political rivals.

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He also noted that the congressional investigation could be used to dent Duterte’s popularity – especially ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for May of next year.

“In the past, foreign policy was never politically sexy, never an election issue, it was never emotional – until now. Partly because of social media, partly because of the aggression of China, it’s emotional, it could be an election issue,” he said.

According to Llamas, “if foreign policy becomes an election issue, it can be weaponised against the Dutertes” and also used against pro-Duterte candidates such as senators Bato dela Rosa, Bong Go and Francis Tolentino, who are up for re-election next year.

The analyst also argued that the popularity enjoyed by Vice-President Sara Duterte was “only reflected glory” from her father. “So could