Sentinel setbacks expose aged and decrepit US nukes

The LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program faces significant overruns and delays, casting an unwelcome spotlight on America’s aging US nuclear arsenal and contrasting sharply with the rapid modernization efforts of near-peer adversaries China and Russia.

The National Interest (TNI) reported this month that the LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM, developed in tandem by the US Air Force and defense contractor Northrop Grumman, is expected to cost 37% more than originally budgeted and take at least two years longer to reach initial operational capability than previously projected.

TNI notes that the Sentinel’s delay will require the US Air Force to extend the life of some of its Minuteman ICBMs, which were activated in the 1970s and comprise one of the three major components of the US nuclear triad.

Replacement of the ground-based US nuclear arsenal anchored by the Minuteman III has officially exceeded its US$95.8 billion budget, due to the Covid-19 pandemic and inflation. TNI notes that the cost overrun owes to the modernization of 450 missile silos and their command infrastructure, which includes 12,070 kilometers of new cables.

The US Department of Defense (DOD) has no choice but to push the program through, with costs potentially rising to over $125 billion. TNI reports the US Air Force expects a new cost and schedule for the LGM-35A Sentinel by summer 2024 if the program is allowed to continue.

The LGM-35A Sentinel is envisioned to replace LGM-30G Minuteman IIIs by 2029 and remain in service until the 2070s. The system features a modular design and open architecture, allowing for easy replacement of aging components and cost-effective maintenance.

Modularity also reduces maintenance costs by enabling the